Worlds 2020 Semifinals: DWG Vs. G2 Odds and Predictions
Never has it felt so good to be proven wrong. In my last prediction, I gave the underdogs, Gen.G, the win against G2 Esports. However, G2 absolutely demolished the LCK 3rd seed in a quick 3–0. This time around, they could put down the last of the LCK representatives, DAMWON Gaming. With regional pride on the line, and a chance at revenge, you know the stakes, and wagers, will be ever higher as the Western LCK killer faces Korea’s 1st seed powerhouse.
The Background
The nickname of “LCK Killer” is quite suitable for G2. Over the course of 2019 and 2020, G2 have been the Kryptonite to LCK teams. Against SKT, they hold an 8–3 record, and against DWG, a record of 3–1. Only against Griffin do they have a losing record of 1–2. After the Quarterfinals this year, they tacked on a very nice looking 3–0 to their trophy collection and are looking for another victory in a best of 5 series against DWG since their 2019 victory.
DWG, on the other hand, are looking for some hefty revenge. 2019 saw G2 eliminate DWG from the World bracket stage in a surprising upset for the ages. However, this time around, DWG are looking much stronger, and much more confident. With Showmaker leading the charge against the Western Faker “Caps”, it is set to be a spicy match.
The Safe Bets
Overall Winner: DAMWON Gaming (1.4)
As much as I have been proven wrong by G2 so far in Worlds, this mountain is a bit too tough to climb. In every single lane, which also includes support, DWG are seen to be staking higher KDAs. The largest gap comes between the jungle, with Canyon mounting an impressive 10.6 KDA during Worlds so far, and Jankos a much lower 4.4 KDA. A much more erratic statistic, but still noticeable, is average game time. DWG host an average game duration of 30:47 minutes, while G2 sit at 33:24 minutes. However, even though they have a shorter average game time, DWG hold on average a +1441 gold differential at 15 minutes, whereas G2 hold an average of +937. This gives a strong implication that DWG will take an early lead in their games, and not let up against the last western hope.
Total Maps: Over 3.5 (1.41)
So far in the knockout stage, there have been numerous sweeps as expected teams take the matches. However, in this series, both 1st seeds will be looking to not go down without a fight. Unless the improbable happens, expect at least a game to be taken by either side.
The Rough Bets
Map Handicap: G2 +1.5 (1.87)
Even though both G2 and DWG swept their Quarterfinals matches in quick 3–0 series, I highly doubt that will happen this time. However, a full-blown series does not seem viable either, with how DWG tend to play. Given these facts, a take of G2 with a +1.5 handicap will be covered if G2 do not roll over and just take it.
Odd/Even Maps: Even (2.48)
This is one I do not normally take. However, as I do not believe that a sweep or full series will occur, a 4-game series seems like the only logical outcome. Take it as you will, but I feel this is not too far out of the realm of possibilities.
The Long Shots
Total Maps: Over 4.5 (2.9) OR Under 3.5 (2.77)
Although this may seem like a scapegoat answer, the possibility that G2 and DWG either sweep each other, or fight to the bitter end is very improbable, but not impossible. This is the match that many predict to be the battle of the year, with so much history and pride on the line. Either ending would be a historic event for the winning side.
Overall Winner: G2 (2.81)
Once again, I may be betting against the last western hope, but that does not mean they have no chance of winning. G2 have earned their nickname, and that may become fact if they are able to topple DWG here. Depending on how Caps and Jankos turn up, we could see G2 complete another miracle run, marking their second appearance as a Worlds finalist. There is just a very tough wall known as DWG in front of them.
Although these may seem like weak analytic picks, the thought of seeing the last remaining hopes for two regions means, no matter the outcome, someone will be making a nice amount by the end of it. It just depends on whether you have faith that G2 is the true Kryptonite of Korea, or that DWG will get their revenge. Bet as you wish and get ready for some awesome League of Legends action!